Estimation of the impact of various scenarios of reduction of alcohol use in Brazil

Leia em português

Alcohol use is one of the main risk factors for noncommunicable diseases, which generates direct and indirect economic costs to countries and their populations, considering health expenses and productivity losses to economies. This study continues the comparative risk analysis methodology presented in 2024, which estimated the direct and indirect costs of alcohol use in Brazil. The model was expanded to analyze the impact of reducing alcohol use by 10% and 20% in the country, with 2019 as a reference year.

According to the new estimates, considering alcohol use adjusted by the market estimates of the World Health Organization, we had 102,300 deaths attributable to alcohol use, and the costs of premature deaths reached the figure of 20.6 billion Brazilian reais (R$) in 2019. The differences in relation to the previously presented estimates are explained by the disaggregation of use ranges, allowing a more detailed assessment of the epidemiological and economic burden, reflecting the differences in small ranges of alcohol use by age and sex.

In the modeled scenarios, a 10% reduction in use by the entire population would lead to a 4.6% reduction in attributable mortality (about 4,600 deaths), corresponding to a 5.0% reduction in the costs of premature mortality (R$1.0 billion) per year. Meanwhile, a 20% reduction in alcohol use by the population would result in a 10.3% reduction in attributable mortality (about 10,400 deaths), which would correspond to a 10.1% decrease in costs (approximately R$2.1 billion).

These results indicate the need to strengthen and expand policies to address this public health issue and may encourage the discussion of selective taxation of alcoholic beverages to seek the greatest epidemiological and economic impact for this measure, as well as for the entire set of policies aimed at reducing this risk factor.