Research conducted by global public health organization Vital Strategies shows that the São Paulo model, replicated in Rio de Janeiro and other capitals, increased the number of intersection deaths
- The Blue Lanes cause an average increase of 100% to 120% of fatal motorcycle crashes at intersections;
- Despite speed limits of 50 km/h (31 mph), average motorcycle speeds on Blue Lane streets jumped from 58.3 km/h (36.2 mph) to 72.2 km/h (44.9 mph);
- 96% of motorcyclists travel above 50 km/h and 81% travel above 60 km/h on roads with Blue Lanes.
A new independent study reveals that the Blue Lane (Faixa Azul) system in São Paulo, Brazil – road markings that define an exclusive lane for motorcyclists between other vehicle lanes – drastically increased average motorcyclist speeds and caused an average increase of 100% to 120% in fatal collisions involving motorcyclists at intersections. The study was conducted by a consortium formed by the University of São Paulo (USP), Federal University of Ceará (UFC), and Instituto Cordial, in partnership with global public health organization Vital Strategies.
Brazil recorded 36,403 traffic deaths in 2024 alone. This is the fifth consecutive increase since 2019, according to the Ministry of Health. Of this total, more than one third, 14,994, were motorcycle occupants: an increase of more than 10% compared to 2023. The city of São Paulo, the largest metropolis in the country, recorded 1,029 total traffic deaths in the same period alone, of which 46.74% were occupants of two-wheeled vehicles, which is why pressure for solutions to reduce motorcyclist deaths is intensifying.
Initiated in 2022 in the capital of São Paulo, as a national pilot project, the Blue Lane program experienced rapid expansion, surpassing 125 miles (200 km) in length by today. However, this growth occurred without scientific evidence of the efficacy of these lanes in reducing fatalities. The report’s launch comes at a crucial moment as the National Traffic Secretariat (SENATRAN) awaits conclusive technical evidence to decide whether or not the Blue Lane should be officially regulated and incorporated into the Brazilian traffic laws.
“We are seeing an increase in the number of drivers traveling above the speed limit in the Blue Lanes, which puts their lives and others at risk. Therefore, we need to be very cautious when expanding this project. This is one of the first robust pieces of evidence about the negative effect of the Blue Lane on motorcyclist safety. Measures such as speed management and enforcement have already been proven to be more effective in preventing motorcyclist deaths,” explains Ezequiel Dantas, Director of Traffic Injury Surveillance at Vital Strategies.
São Paulo’s Blue Lane model is being replicated in other regions of the country, including Rio de Janeiro (RJ), Fortaleza (CE), Salvador (BA), Porto Alegre (RS), and Belo Horizonte (MG). “This expansion raises serious concerns, particularly given that São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro currently rank highest for fatal motorcycle crashes in the country,” alerts Dantas.
As part of the study, researchers spoke with motorcyclists who expressed a strong sense of comfort and belonging within the Blue Lanes. “More space is calmer. Sometimes cars are packed too close together. You end up trying to swerve and end up hitting something. Falling, you know? This space, this freer space, helps. It’s helped so much”, commented one of the motorcyclists interviewed during the study. However, the analysis reveals a critical paradox: this perceived comfort often translates into a false sense of security, encouraging significantly higher speeds. Consequently, what feels ‘safer’ to the rider actually exposes them and others to greater risks, particularly at intersections.
Designated lane organizes flow, but encourages speeding
Despite the posted speed limit of 50 km/h (31 mph), data reveals that mid-block average motorcycle speeds on Blue Lane streets jumped from 58.3 km/h (36.2 mph) to 72.2 km/h (44.9 mph). The report concludes that ground demarcation alone is insufficient to guarantee safety. Drone monitoring and geospatial analysis indicate that the markings create a “clear track” effect, inadvertently stimulating speeds significantly above the legal limit.
This behavior has resulted in a scenario where 96% of motorcyclists travel above 50 km/h and 81% travel above 60 km/h on roads with Blue Lanes, compared to 71% and 35% on roads without the intervention, respectively. The most serious consequence occurs at intersections, where interaction with other vehicles intensifies. At these locations, the study points to an average increase of 100% to 120% in fatal crashes.
“The Blue Lane organized the coexistence between vehicles but did not eliminate the physical risk. What we saw was a severe side effect: the lane became an acceleration corridor. The motorcyclist gains fluidity mid-block but arrives at the intersection with much greater energy. When drivers find each at an intersection and the impact occurs at high speeds, 70 or 80 km/h (43 to 50 mph) the results are dramatic. This dynamic explains why fatalities doubled at intersections, even when visually it appears to be more organized traffic,” explains Mateus Humberto, professor at the USP Polytechnic School and coordinator of the study.
Adjustments to save lives
Given the São Paulo City Hall’s intention to expand the network and the interest of other cities in adopting Blue Lanes, the study’s findings indicate the need to reconsider or adjust the measure. To improve safety, decision-makers should prioritize road engineering best practices and rigorous enforcement; strategies reinforced by technical resources such as the WHO Speed Management Manual, which identifies speed control as the key factor in reducing crash severity. Beyond infrastructure, it is crucial to address social-behavioral aspects, fostering a road safety culture where speeding is perceived as deviant behavior rather than a norm. Consequently, the consortium recommends that the evolution of public policy be conditioned on a safety protocol aligned with Vision Zero principles, ensuring the system is designed to forgive human error and effectively protect lives.
According to experts, active speed management should be viewed as a risk mitigation measure rather than a definitive solution. There is a concern that the current model relies excessively on users’ voluntary compliance with limits, which challenges Safe System principles where the infrastructure itself should induce correct behavior. Given this uncertainty, the technical recommendation is against expansion. However, should there be an administrative decision to proceed, it is imperative that it be conditional on enforcement strategies (such as average speed monitoring) and redesigns, aiming to contain crash severity in light of the project’s inherent limitations.
The economic impact and the burden on the Unified Health System (SUS)
The urgency in adopting stricter safety protocols on the Blue Lane is part of a context of billions in financial losses for the country. A new World Bank report, “The Burden of Road Traffic Injuries in Brazil,” estimates that traffic crashes cost Brazil US$61.3 billion annually, the equivalent of 3.8% of the GDP, double what the country invests in infrastructure. The largest share of this cost (57%) corresponds to “human costs,” such as pain and loss of quality of life, followed by loss of productivity (17%). The impact on public health is also critical: data from the Brazilian Association of Traffic Medicine (Abramet) reveals that, in 2024, the SUS registered one hospitalization due to a traffic crash every two minutes, totaling more than 227,000 hospital admissions in the year.
“Based on available evidence, the Blue Lane does not currently qualify as a road safety policy, and its expansion is not recommended. If maintained on an experimental basis, its implementation must be gradual and conditional upon a robust monitoring and evaluation protocol,” concludes Dantas.
The study used a globally recognized scientific methodology (Difference-in-Differences), which allows isolating the effect of the Blue Lane by comparing roads with and without the intervention (control group). The analysis was conducted through quantitative research, speed measurement using drones and computer vision, as well as qualitative research, including semi-structured interviews with motorcyclists to elucidate behavioral mechanisms.
Read the full study here.
About Vital Strategies
Vital Strategies is a global health organization present in over 80 countries that works with governments and civil society to design and implement strategies and policies to address some of the world’s biggest public health challenges. Vital Strategies supports the design and implementation of evidence-based policies and practices to achieve significant impacts in combating alcohol consumption, non-communicable chronic diseases, epidemics, gender violence, traffic accidents, and other causes of illness, injury, and death.