- Over 10,000 deaths would be prevented each year by achieving a 20% reduction in alcohol consumption.
- By saving these lives, Brazil would avoid losing 2.1 billion Brazilian reais (USD $389M) each year in productivity losses due to premature deaths.
- The study was conducted by Fiocruz with support from Vital Strategies and ACT Promoção da Saúde, under the RESET Alcohol initiative.
- The research deepens and updates a study conducted in 2024, which estimated deaths and costs associated with alcohol consumption in Brazil.
- The updated figures, based on WHO data, show that in 2019, 102,300 people died in Brazil due to alcohol consumption.
- With the selective tax, Brazil has an opportunity to implement one of the most cost-effective measures to reduce the negative impacts of alcohol consumption on both health and the economy.
São Paulo, August 19, 2025 – If the Brazilian population reduces its alcohol consumption by 20%, 10,400 deaths could be prevented each year. This is equivalent to preventing one death per hour in the country, according to the study “Estimating the Impact of Different Scenarios for Reducing Alcohol Consumption in Brazil,” conducted by researcher Eduardo Nilson of Fiocruz at the request of Vital Strategies and ACT Promoção da Saúde as part of the RESET Alcohol initiative.
By saving these lives, Brazil would also avoid losing the equivalent of R$2.1 billion (USD $389M)annually in productivity losses associated with premature deaths. These potential savings are equivalent to 58% of the 2024 budget for Farmácia Popular, one of the main programs ensuring access to medicines in the country.
“The indirect costs of premature deaths—of individuals under the age of 70 years—related to alcohol consumption represent economic losses associated with the early interruption of the lives of people of productive age. This includes lost productivity at work, as well as the impact on family income and the economy as a whole,” explains the author of the study, Eduardo Nilson, a researcher at the Oswaldo Cruz Foundation (Fiocruz) and the Center for Epidemiological Research in Nutrition and Health (Nupens/University of São Paulo).
“In other words, in addition to causing human suffering, alcohol imposes a significant economic burden on the country by removing thousands of people from the job market prematurely,” says the researcher.
The decision to focus the study on the estimated impact of a 20% reduction in consumption was based on recommendations from the second decade of the World Health Organization’s Global Alcohol Action Plan (WHO 2022-2030). The organization recommends “accelerating actions to achieve a 20% reduction alcohol consumption by 2030.”
“Measuring and bringing visibility to the impact of alcohol is especially important at a moment when Brazil is about to engage in discussions that will define rates for the selective tax on alcohol. If rates are high enough, it will be possible to lower consumption, bringing us closer to the WHO. As a result, we will be able to reduce illnesses, accidents, violence, death and suffering, in addition to alleviating the negative impact on our health systems, social security and economy as a whole,” explains Luciana Vasconcelos Sardinha, Deputy Director of Noncommunicable Diseases at Vital Strategies Brazil.
In addition to evaluating the impact of a scenario considered ideal by international guidelines, the study estimated the reduction in deaths and their related costs under a more conservative scenario targeting a 10% reduction in alcohol consumption. Under this scenario, almost 5,000 lives would be saved per year, reducing economic losses by R$1 billion (USD $185M) annually.
Deaths and Costs Attributable to Alcohol Consumption
Alcohol consumption is one of the main risk factors for noncommunicable diseases, such as cardiovascular disease and cancer. According to the WHO, alcohol was responsible for 2.6 million deaths worldwide in 2019, equivalent to 4.7% of all global deaths that year.
In Brazil, a study by Fiocruz, also based on WHO data, estimated that 102,300 people died from causes attributable to alcohol consumption in 2019 – approximately 12 deaths per hour. These deaths represent economic losses in the order of R$20.6 billion (USD $3.8B) every year, considering only the productivity losses caused by premature deaths. “In the next stage of the study, we will update our calculations to include the direct costs of alcohol consumption, that is, the amount spent by our health system,” says researcher Nilson.
“According to the first study, conducted in 2024, these costs exceed R$1 billion (USD $185M) per year, just with direct federal costs for hospitalizations and outpatient procedures in the Unified Health System (SUS). With this updated estimate, we also calculated the possible savings for the SUS if 10% and 20% alcohol consumption scenarios were achieved in the country,” explains Nilson.
Measures to Reduce Consumption
The global burden of disease and injury caused by alcohol consumption can be quantified for a wide range of health conditions, based on available scientific evidence linking the role of alcohol to their development, occurrence, and outcomes.
To effectively reduce the harm caused by alcohol consumption, it is essential to adopt a set of coordinated public policies. The WHO SAFER package brings together the most cost-effective measures to achieve this goal, including restrictions on availability and marketing, strengthening the response of health systems, and, especially, increasing taxation.
“The taxation of alcohol products is widely recognized as the most cost-effective intervention, with a strong impact on consumption and the associated social and economic harms. The definition of selective tax rates is a concrete opportunity for the country to align itself with global best practices,” says Luciana.
The indirect economic impacts of alcohol consumption are vast and multifaceted. Its misuse has significant implications for productivity and the workforce, resulting in absenteeism, productivity declines, and workplace accidents. In addition, consumption is closely linked to an increase in criminal behavior, including violence, domestic violence, and drink driving.
“Most Brazilian people agree with the adoption of measures to minimize the harms of alcohol. The definition of rates capable of disincentivizing consumption is key to the health and development of the country. The Chamber of Deputies and the Senate must understand that the initiative can help people make healthier choices and reduce costs that end up burdening society as a whole,” underlines Paula Johns, Executive Director of ACT Promoção da Saúde.
The principles that can guide taxation to effectively achieve public health objectives are studied by experts around the world. Researchers from the Economics for Health project, affiliated with the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, develop consistent analyses and proposals for alcohol and tobacco taxation models that have a real impact on consumption, such as hybrid tax systems (where one component of the tax is based on sale price and another on alcohol/ethanol content per volume).
In early July 2025, the WHO launched the “3 by 35 Initiative”, which encourages countries to increase the prices of sugary drinks, alcohol and tobacco by 50% over the next 10 years through taxation. This is the first time the organization has suggested a target price increase for all three products.
Methodology
“Estimating the Impact of Different Scenarios for Reducing Alcohol Consumption in Brazil” was based on estimates from a comparative risk analysis model considering indirect costs attributable to alcohol consumption in Brazil in 2019, using the prevalence of alcohol consumption by the population according to gender and age group as well as relative risks from meta-analyses on the dose-response relationship between alcohol consumption and different health outcomes. All epidemiological, population, consumption, and cost data were disaggregated by gender and age group (with ranges from 20 years to over 80 years).
The study considered 24 diseases and causes of death associated with alcohol consumption, establishing a dose-response relationship between the amount of alcohol consumed and the relative risk of outcomes based on meta-analyses published and used by the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study and the WHO. Combined with the prevalence of alcohol consumption for each gender and age group, the attributable burden for each disease was estimated according to alcohol consumption range, which was then applied to the costs per disease.
To calculate the impact of reduced consumption in two scenarios – 10% and 20% – with greater precision, consumption ranges that captured small differences were used. The first range included groups that consumed 1g of pure alcohol (ethanol) per day, with each subsequent range increased by 1g, up to a total of 74 ranges. This approach allowed an examination of subtle differences in consumption reduction, enabling accurate calculation of what a 10% or 20% reduction would mean in each range and measurement of the impact of these changes on deaths and costs. “When defining the 20% or 10% reduction scenarios, we considered variations such as an individual who consumes 10g/day reducing to 9g/day or 8g/day,” Nilson explains.
About Vital Strategies
Vital Strategies is a global health organization operating in more than 80 countries which works with governments and civil society to design and implement strategies and policies to address some of the world’s greatest public health challenges. Vital Strategies supports the design and implementation of evidence-based policies and practices to achieve significant impacts in combating alcohol consumption, chronic noncommunicable diseases, epidemics, gender-based violence, traffic injuries and other causes of illness, injury and death. The organization has offices in New York, São Paulo, Addis Ababa, Singapore, Jinan, New Delhi and Paris.
About ACT Promoção da Saúde
ACT Promoção da Saúde, a non-governmental organization, works to develop and advocate for public policies that combat chronic noncommunicable diseases. In this sense, it specifically supports tobacco and alcohol control, healthy eating and physical activity through advocacy actions, such as political advocacy, communication, mobilization, contact networks and research, among others.
About RESET Alcohol
RESET Alcohol is a global initiative that brings together national governments, civil society, researchers, and leaders in public health and alcohol policy to implement the World Health Organization’s SAFER best buys for alcohol policy with a focus on increasing taxation, and targeted efforts to restrict marketing and availability. The initiative is led by Vital Strategies in collaboration with national partners in countries where RESET operates (in Brazil, ACT Promoção da Saúde and Universidade Católica de Brasília – UCB) and global technical partners that include the World Health Organization (WHO), Johns Hopkins University Tobacconomics Team, Global Alcohol Policy Alliance (GAPA), and Movendi International.
More Information
Analítica Comunicação – Communication Consultancy for Vital Strategies Brazil
Gabriela Scheinberg – gabi.scheinberg@analitica.inf.br – (11) 91096-4944
Wilma Loures – wilma.loures@analitica.inf.br – (11) 96324-6565
Mauricio Esposito – mauricio.esposito@analitica.inf.br – (11) 99915-7583